Totals to Target: NFL Week 7

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Totals to Target: NFL Week 7

There’s no doubt that overs are the more enjoyable side of a total to be on. For that reason, the books tend to shade totals slightly toward the over because they know that’s what the public likes to play. However, for those who can stomach rooting for punts, missed field goals and goal-line stops – in other words, nothing – there’s typically solid value in unders. That’s not to say that overs don’t have value as well. With that in mind, let’s highlight a few juicy totals for Week 7.

Houston at Kansas City – under 39.5

There’s not a lot of wiggle room here, but a matchup pitting the league’s top-ranked scoring defense – the Chiefs, who are allowing a minuscule 10.8 points per game – vs. the No. 1 overall defense – the Texans, who are surrendering just 252.8 yards per game – figures to be a grind fest. Then there’s the emotion factor. Many of the Houston defenders were justifiably worked up after seeing their fans boo Matt Schaub after he got injured last week. Going into a game no one is giving them a chance to win, look for the Texans D to make a formidable stand and keep this one in the teens.

Cleveland at Green Bay – under 46

Despite the temporary loss of Clay Matthews, the Packers defense has solidified since coming out of the bye, holding the Lions and Ravens to a combined 26 points. On the offensive side, Aaron Rodgers has seen his weapons start to drop like flies, with receivers Randall Cobb (knee) out multiple weeks and James Jones (knee) questionable for Sunday’s tilt. Going up against a Browns defense that ranks 11th in scoring and seventh overall, Green Bay will have its fair share of fits, making this under a rock-solid play.

Denver at Indianapolis – over 56.5

This is an astronomically high number, but when you consider every one of the Broncos’ totals have gone over this season and their offense is averaging a staggering 44.2 points per game, it’s not nearly as tough to play this over. On the flip side, the Denver defense has allowed over 26 points per game, while the Colts have put up 25 a game at Lucas Oil Stadium. The market always corrects itself, and it certainly will in the case of the Broncos. But until a team figures out how to keep Denver under 40, there’s no reason to stop riding the wave.

Overall picks: 5-4

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