Super Bowl prop betting tips

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Super Bowl prop betting tips

With the Super Bowl comes a set of wagers that have become synonymous with the big game itself: props.

Some will contend that props are dumb bets, since they’re contingent on circumstance – and sometimes chance – and are therefore difficult to project over a larger sample size. Don’t be swayed. There’s a ton of value to be found in props, especially in this day and age where sportsbooks print sheets with hundreds of bets.

So what’s the key to unearthing high-value props? Patience and thoroughness. The easiest way to shed light on the profitability of prop betting is to examine the source of the props themselves. Oddsmakers are undeniably very good at what they do, but they are still human and working against the clock. Props sheets are generally released the weekend before the Super Bowl, meaning oddsmakers have approximately six days to come up with “the list” after the conclusion of the conference championship games. That’s not a lot of time. Because of that, there are always going to be weak numbers that go to post on prop sheets.

Bettors who are willing to invest the time and patience necessary to pore over all those pages of bets with an analytical eye are guaranteed to find a few hidden jewels. In addition to simply taking the time to give consideration to as many props as possible, there are a few things to keep in mind while going through the process of Super Bowl prop betting:

For any prop with historical precedent, always research the bet before pulling the trigger
Many props are hyper specific, which pretty much removes the potential for looking at past performances of that prop. However, many more are recurring props and can therefore be parsed. A prime example of this is the annual “Will there be three straight scores?” prop. Since most books will offer attractive juice on “NO” (+140 to +160), it’s easy to assume there won’t be three straight scores and grab that plus-juice. However, recent and cumulative history tell a different story as it pertains to this prop, as six of the last eight Super Bowls (75 percent) have seen three straight scores, and 34 of 48 overall (70.8 percent). It can’t be stressed enough: when research can be done, do it.

As a general rule, lean toward “NO” over “YES”
This ties into the greater tendencies of the betting public. Just like recreational bettors prefer to get down on favorites and overs – it’s always more fun to root for the better team and a lot of points – the first thought of the public as it relates to YES/NO props is to bet “YES.” To bet “YES” is to come in on the side of action, of something happening as opposed to not happening. It sounds trivial, but recreational bettors aren’t going to put $20 or $50 down on an outcome that they don’t want to see. For that reason, there’s lots of value to be had in “NO.” The juice won’t be favorable (a hint in itself), but the profitability of “NO” bets is well established.

• Diversify any long-shot bets
Admittedly, it’s not much fun to lay -150 and higher and root for something not to happen, despite that being the truest formula for prop success. Betting long-shot props certainly has its advantages, as long as there’s some strategy involved. Exact team totals are a good example. Because team totals will typically fall on some combination of multiples of 3 and 7, betting off-kilter numbers can lead to big payouts. A two-point conversion attempt here and a safety there can create odd team total scenarios. Over the last 11 Super Bowls, teams have landed on 8, 23, 25, 29 (twice), 32 and 43 with those numbers paying out at anywhere from 25/1 to 60/1. That’s nearly 32 percent of team totals landing on numbers with massive returns. Bettors who want to dip into the team total pool should diversify their action. Instead of putting $20 on Seattle to score exactly 25 points, spread that twenty bucks out over a few numbers. Putting $5 apiece on 22, 23, 25 and 26 is a way to chase that long shot while also employing a bit of strategy.

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