Super Bowl line analysis

0 Comments 📁 Slider 🕔21.January 2014
Super Bowl line analysis

Super Bowl XLVIII will pit a pair of teams with a lot in common. Both are 15-3. Both were the undisputed best in their respective conferences throughout the regular season and playoffs. And both were among a handful of favorites to advance to and win the Super Bowl when oddsmakers released NFL futures in April 2013.

On Championship Sunday, the Broncos and Seahawks also both won in impressive fashion. Denver dominated a depleted Patriots team while Seattle came from behind and held off the 49ers. Because San Francisco had been the consensus hottest team in the NFL, the Seahawks’ victory was viewed in a slightly more favorable light than that of the Broncos, which is why most sportsbooks opened the Super Bowl line with SeattleĀ as 1- to 1.5-point favorites.

Oddsmakers surely didn’t anticipate the one-sided action that was to come, as a cascade of Broncos money quickly pushed the line through pickem to Denver -1. Later Sunday night, the line had moved even further in the Broncos direction before settling at anywhere from 2 to 2.5 points by Monday afternoon.

To see such a significant and rapid adjustment – 3 full points in less than 24 hours – is noteworthy and should create opportunities for bettors who keep an eye on the market. Because the line is fast approaching the key number of 3, it will be interesting to see how oddsmakers react if an inordinate proportion of Denver money continues to flow in. As of Tuesday night, the ticket count was favoring Denver at a 74-percent rate.

In the event of current betting trends holding, books currently listing Denver -2.5 will likely adjust the juice on either side of the 2.5, as they know if they move the line onto 3 the wiseguys will pounce on the Seahawks getting the field goal. At that point, oddsmakers know they will be susceptible to getting middled, one of their worst-case scenarios for the big game.

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