Hot ‘dogs: NFL Week 4

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Hot ‘dogs: NFL Week 4

Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL slate, where the good news is teams are starting to form identities, which makes the task of putting together your parlays slightly more manageable. On the flip side, the sportsbooks are also starting to hit their stride, as the variance and unpredictability that comes with the first few weeks has started to subside. Which is to say the numbers the books put out are becoming stronger.

One thing to look out for is the books over-adjusting to early-season trends. There’s always value to be found in moneyline underdogs, and even more so around this time of the year. With that in mind, let’s highlight a few hot ‘dogs.

Giants +180 in Kansas City

Purely by the numbers, this game is a sizable mismatch. The Giants are ravaged along the offensive line, and Eli Manning – when he hasn’t been getting sacked – has been throwing the ball to the opposition with alarming frequency. The Chiefs, meanwhile, lead the league with 15 sacks and have forced nine turnovers. So why get anywhere near this moneyline? Too much value. Eli and the Giants have been on the mat at a nine-count too many times only to pull a horseshoe out of their rear ends. As for the Chiefs, three impressive wins do not a trend make.

Patriots +115 in Atlanta

New England will once again be without Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski, which will put the onus on the Patriots rookie receivers in a hostile environment. The Falcons figure to put at least 24 points on the board in their house, and a depleted Patriots offense has averaged just 19.7 points so far this season. But how often does Tom Brady take the field as an underdog? Get a piece of this once-in-a-blue-moon action and ask questions later.

Bills +140 vs. Ravens

Buffalo nearly knocked off the Patriots in Week 1 at home before beating what looks like a solid Carolina team in Week 2. A loss to the Jets, coupled with the Ravens dismantling the Texans, caused some knee-jerk reactions in terms of public sentiment regarding this game. Don’t be fooled. There’s good value in the Bills getting plus-action at home against a Baltimore team that has yet to distinguish itself on the road. 

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