Line analysis: Titans-Broncos

📁 Slider 🕔05.December 2013
Line analysis: Titans-Broncos

Oddsmakers and bettors alike have experienced a roller coaster ride when it’s come to the Broncos and the spread this season. After a 3-1 start to the season, Denver dropped three straight ATS before rebounding to cover four of its last five. For this weekend’s matchup vs. the Titans, bookmakers predominately opened the Broncos as 12.5-point favorites.

As expected, some sharp money quickly came in on Tennessee at +12.5, causing the LVH, Wynn and William Hill books to push the number down to 12 by Monday afternoon. True to form, the public has backed Peyton Manning’s side, with a 63/37 Denver/Tennessee ticket ratio as of midday Thursday.

Contrary to the public, which has been on Denver from the word go, the wiseguys have picked their spots with the Broncos, most notably backing the Patriots two weeks ago before laying the points with Denver last Sunday in Kansas City. As a general rule, though, their first lean is toward the ‘dog when seeing a double-digit spread.

This is the fifth time the Broncos have been hung as double-digit favorites, having split the first four. The Titans, conversely, find themselves getting at least 10 points for the second time this season.

As 12.5-point underdogs in Seattle, Tennessee covered by a rather comfortable seven-point margin (20-13) in a game that served as a microcosm of its solid play on the road in 2013. The Titans enter this contest an impressive 5-1 vs. the number away from home, their first loss coming last weekend at Indy (when a late Colts touchdown swung the spread).

Another sign that the wiseguys may be on the right side of this matchup is the weather. Since 2003, Manning is 1-5 ATS in sub-freezing temperatures. The forecast Sunday in Denver is calling for temperatures in the high teens with a chance of snow. How that affects any further line shifts remains to be seen, but the reverse line movement so far is likely a good indicator of things to come given the public’s undying support of the Broncos.

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