Line analysis: Jaguars-Broncos

0 Comments 📁 Slider 🕔09.October 2013
Line analysis: Jaguars-Broncos

In a Week 6 slate that boasts more than a few intriguing matchups – Packers-Ravens, Saints-Patriots and Colts-Chargers among them – it’s the weekend’s most lopsided game that is dominating the dialogue in Vegas and offshore.

Indeed, the dismal Jaguars’ visit to Denver for a meeting with the white-hot Broncos resulted in the highest opening point spread (28) since such numbers have been recorded. With the public generally trending toward favorites and overs, the Broncos (4-1 ATS, 5-0 over the total) have created a major headache for the sportsbooks so far this season.

Not until last week’s 51-48 shootout win over the Cowboys did Denver fail to pay out on what had become a routinely-bet correlated side/total parlay. (Of course, those who have been riding strictly the Denver overs were cashing out their tickets in the third quarter last Sunday.)

Spinning things forward to the Jacksonville matchup, the public hasn’t been swayed by the Cowboys covering a 7.5-point spread with room to spare last weekend, as 56 percent of all tickets counted had come in on the Broncos side in Vegas, and 60 percent offshore, as of Wednesday evening. However, the line has been moving in the opposite direction, with the current number anywhere from 27 to 27.5 at the Vegas books, and predominately 26.5 offshore.

What does this tell us? That the sharp money has been coming in on the Jaguars from the outset, and despite the number of tickets on Jacksonville’s side being outnumbered by those on Denver, the heaviest action has been on the Jags, which has forced the books to push the number down to further entice the public to hop on the Broncos side and even out the money.

The wiseguys are usually right, and in this spot they’re probably licking their chops. Motivation will be a major determining factor in the Broncos’ final margin of victory. If everything shakes out as anticipated, Peyton Manning and most of the first-team offense will likely be on the sidelines watching the action for much of the second half after building a big lead.¬†Conversely, as bad as the Jaguars have been, they’ve come close to back-door covering in Seattle and St. Louis, yet another reason the wiseguys like them in this spot.

If there is a play to be made on Denver, the first-half side – currently in the 18 to 19.5 range – is probably it, as Manning will be going full throttle for at least the first two quarters.

 

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