Good action picks: NFL Week 8

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Good action picks: NFL Week 8

With six teams on byes in Weeks 8 and 9, the pickins are slimmed down a bit, making it that much tougher to find solid plays. The lack of parity in the league is also on display, as evidenced by four games with double-digit spreads: San Francisco (-15) vs. Jacksonville; New Orleans (-11) vs. Buffalo; Denver (-12) vs. Washington; and Seattle (-11) in St. Louis. Add in the Packers giving 9 points in Minnesota and that makes for nearly 40 percent of the slate boasting heavy favorites. Or put another way, there’s not a whole lot of value on the moneyline underdog this week. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some plays to be made, though.

Dallas +150 in Detroit

Most signs point to the Lions in this game. They’re at home. ¬†They let one slip away against the visiting Bengals last week, and at 4-3 they’re suddenly looking up at the 4-2 Packers in the NFC North. Dallas, meanwhile, has surged to the top of the NFC East after consecutive divisional wins over the Redskins and Eagles. A letdown could be coming. It’s just hard to let such a potentially high-value pick go unplayed. The Cowboys ebb and flow every year, and there’s always a stretch where their formidable talent spurs them to big wins as significant ‘dogs. In a week that figures to feature few upsets, this is a play that deserves some action.

Washington at Denver – over 58

One of the great questions the books are trying to answer as the season unfolds is when they will finally be able to harness the total in games involving the Broncos. Seemingly every week, the number gets higher, yet Denver keeps obliterating it. Or in the case of last week’s game, Indianapolis doing the heavy lifting. An adjustment will happen sooner than later (at least when the weather gets colder), but it doesn’t look like that will be happening this week. The Redskins give up a ton of yards and points, and they can also put up their fair share of points. The Denver offense has been especially lethal against the NFC East this year, hanging 41 on the Giants, 52 on the Eagles and 51 on the Cowboys. Coming off the reunion loss to the Colts, Peyton Manning will have the pedal to the medal this week. Bettors would probably be wise to follow suit.

Buffalo at New Orleans Рover 48.5 

The Saints have had two weeks to stew about their last-second loss in New England, and you can be sure Drew Brees is ready to take it out on the Bills. New Orleans always puts up crooked numbers coming out of the bye at home (49 in 2011 vs. the Giants, 34 in 2010 vs. the Seahawks). The Bills, on the flip side, have scored at least 20 points in every game so far, no small feat. This number looks to be two points too low.

Overall picks: 8-4

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